April 6, 2022

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By David Leonhardt

Good morning. Why haven't Covid cases started rising again in the U.S.?

Grand Central Terminal in Manhattan last week.Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times

A new mystery

To many people's surprise — including mine — new Covid-19 cases in the U.S. have not begun to rise. Over the past two weeks, they have held roughly steady, falling about 1 percent, even as the highly contagious BA.2 subvariant of Omicron has become the dominant form of Covid in the U.S.

Across much of Europe, by contrast, cases surged last month after BA.2 began spreading there, and many experts expected a similar pattern here. That hasn't happened. "It has not taken off," Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota epidemiologist, told me.

Chart shows 7-day averages as of April 4. | Sources: New York Times database; Johns Hopkins University

What's going on? Today's newsletter looks at four possible explanations.

1. More immunity

Even though the U.S. has a lower vaccination rate than Western Europe, this country may still have built up more immunity — thanks to our politically polarized response to the virus.

In liberal parts of the U.S., vaccination rates can be even higher than in Europe. In conservative communities, many Americans have been so dismissive of Covid that they have long been living almost normally. As a result, the virus has already swept through these communities, conferring at least some immunity on many people.

This laissez-faire approach has had horrible downsides. Covid death rates have been much higher in counties that voted for Donald Trump than those that voted for Joe Biden. But for people who survived a prior Covid infection, it does confer some immune protection, especially if it was recent.

"Most of Europe has been pretty Covid averse," William Hanage, a Harvard epidemiologist, said on a recent episode of the "In the Bubble" podcast, "whereas parts of the United States have been quite Covid curious." Hanage said that he still expected U.S. caseloads to rise soon. But, he added, "I don't think it's going to be as dramatic as Europe."

If that's correct, a preview is already visible in the Northeast, where cases have been rising lately, but not as steeply as in Europe.

Chart shows 7-day averages. | Source: New York Times database

One possible reason: There are not as many Americans vulnerable to infection. The earlier version of the Omicron variant seems to have infected about 45 percent of Americans, according to Andy Slavitt, a former Covid adviser in the Biden White House. That share appears to be higher than Europe's.

2. Fewer tests

The shift toward at-home testing in recent months means that a smaller share of actual Covid cases may be showing up in the data that government agencies report and news organizations like The Times publish. The government data relies on laboratory tests.

Another potential factor depressing the volume of tests is reduced access for lower-income Americans. Some uninsured people now must pay for their own tests, and many testing clinics have closed.

All of which raises the possibility that Covid cases really are surging now, even if the data doesn't show it.

Jessica Malaty Rivera of Boston Children's Hospital told The Atlantic that the quality of current Covid data was "abysmal." Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former F.D.A. commissioner, told CNBC that he thought some parts of the country were "dramatically" underreporting cases.

This chart suggests that underreporting is a real issue. As you can see, official testing in several European countries increased as BA.2 spread, while testing in the U.S. has declined modestly.

Comparisons across countries are affected by different testing policies and reporting methods. | Source: Our World in Data

Still, the shortage of testing does not seem to be the only reason that cases have not surged in the U.S. Trends in Covid hospitalizations typically lag case trends by only about a week. And hospitalizations have continued to fall in the U.S., to their lowest level in more than two years.

3. Just wait

Even if high levels of immunity have kept cases from rising so far, the effect may not be permanent. Remember: About 45 percent of Americans were infected with Omicron, which leaves about 55 percent who were not. While many of those 55 percent may have had an earlier version of Covid, immunity can wane over time.

The current moment might be one of those times when we're asking why cases have not begun to rise right as they begin to rise. "It may be too early to see a signal," Jennifer Nuzzo, a Brown University epidemiologist, told me.

4. Another mystery

Throughout the pandemic, Osterholm — the Minnesota epidemiologist — has lamented that many scientists, journalists and laypeople exaggerate how much we actually know about Covid. His favorite example: The Alpha variant swept through Michigan and Minnesota last year and then largely died out, without causing case increases in other parts of the U.S. Another example: BA.2 has recently become the dominant variant in India, South Africa and some other countries without causing a spike in cases.

When I called Osterholm yesterday to ask why cases had not surged over the past few weeks, he simply said: "I don't know, and I don't think anybody really knows."

Of all the variants, only the original Omicron was so contagious that it spread around the world in predictable ways, he said. Other versions of the virus have surged and receded in mysterious ways, much as a forest fire can die out without burning down an entire forest.

The bottom line: Cases still seem likely to rise, perhaps significantly, in the U.S. soon. But a new wave looks less certain than it did a few weeks ago. Regardless, the steps that can save lives in coming months remain the same: more vaccine shots, including boosters; and greater awareness of available treatments that offer extra protection for the vulnerable.

THE LATEST NEWS

State of the War

Volodymyr Zelensky addressing the Security Council.Peter Foley/EPA, via Shutterstock

Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's president, castigated the U.N. Security Council for not doing more to stop Russia's attacks.
The European Commission proposed to ban Russian coal. (This story explains why it's so hard for Germany to abandon Russian fossil fuels.)
The Biden administration is planning more sanctions against Russia, and against Vladimir Putin's adult daughters.
Russian forces are making "little to no progress" in the Donbas region because of supply issues and declining morale, analysts say.
A Red Cross convoy that has been trying to reach Mariupol since Friday has still not made it.

MORNING READS

Photo illustration by Ben Denzer

Billions: Rags-to-riches stories are kind of disturbing.

Help wanted: Adjunct professor, must have doctorate. Salary: $0.

Comeback: A former child star hasn't had a role in over 20 years. Now, he's the romantic lead.

A Times classic: Master the art of office small talk.

Advice from Wirecutter: Stainless steel cookware sets that last.

Lives Lived: Bobby Rydell became a teenage idol in the 1950s. With his pleasant voice and nice-guy demeanor, he maintained a loyal following for six decades. He died at 79.

ARTS AND IDEAS

Unglamorous social media

Can a social media platform be "authentic"? On Instagram and TikTok, meticulously staged content is commonplace. BeReal, an app that's popular among American college students, promises the opposite, Bloomberg reports.

The app, which originated in France, sends a notification every day at a different time. Users have two minutes to simultaneously snap photos on their phones' front and back-facing phone cameras. The time limit means the images are often candid and mundane: lecture halls, unfiltered selfies, a takeout lunch. Users have to submit their photos before they can see friends' posts.

"You're not putting anything on display for people you only sort of know," one student told The Daily Northwestern. "You're really just sharing a moment of your day with the people who matter most."

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook

David Malosh for The New York Times

Traditional dal takes about an hour to cook. This recipe cuts that time in half.

WHAT TO READ

"Young Mungo," the new novel from Douglas Stuart, tells the story of a boy and his alcoholic mother in working-class Glasgow.

What to Watch

The skateboarder Tony Hawk has originated over 100 skateboard tricks, according to a gripping documentary about his bumpy rise to fame.

Late Night

The hosts talked about Obama's White House visit.

Now Time to Play

The pangram from yesterday's Spelling Bee was captivity. Here is today's puzzle — or you can play online.

Here's today's Wordle. Here's today's Mini Crossword, and a clue: Cake levels (five letters).

If you're in the mood to play more, find all our games here.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

Clarification: Tuesday's newsletter said that the Biden administration has blocked the delivery of S-300 antiaircraft missile systems to Ukraine. Administration officials say they favor the delivery of such systems even though it has not yet happened.

P.S. Farnaz Fassihi is The Times's next United Nations bureau chief, and Zachary Woolfe will become the classical music critic.

Here's today's front page.

"The Daily" is about war crimes. "The Argument" features a former NATO top commander.

Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti, Ashley Wu and Sanam Yar contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.