Tuesday, February 8, 2022

The Morning: Read my lips

More governors say that masks can come off.

Good morning. More Democratic governors are saying that masks can come off in schools.

Elementary school students in Fresno, Calif.Tomas Ovalle for The New York Times

The mask debate

At a recent high school sports event in my community, I ran into a teenager whom I have known for years. We gave each other enthusiastic hellos and started to have a conversation. But it was impossible.

There was some background noise in the gym, and he has a disability that affects how he communicates. Usually, it does not keep us from talking at length. This time — with both of us masked — neither of us could follow what the other was saying. We smiled and gave up.

It was not a big deal, but it reminded me that masks have both benefits and costs. They can slow the transmission of the Covid-19 virus, especially medical-grade masks worn properly. They also impede human communication. Talking with a mask on, as Kathleen Pike, a psychology professor at Columbia University has written, "is like talking on your phone in a zone with weak cell service."

If you scroll through social media, you will find no shortage of people proclaiming that mask wearing is easy for them. I don't doubt it. But it is not so easy for many other people, including young children, people with learning disabilities and people who are hard of hearing.

The national debate over mask mandates in schools is picking up again. Yesterday, Democratic governors in Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey and Oregon all announced the end of their statewide mandates, to take effect in coming weeks. It's a sign that more Americans — and not just Republicans — are ready to move to a new phase of the pandemic.

The end of the statewide mandate is a "huge step toward normalcy," New Jersey's governor, Philip Murphy, said. "We can responsibly live with this thing."

Still, parts of the partisan divide will continue. In some left-leaning communities, school mandates will probably remain even after Democratic governors lift statewide rules.

In a newsletter last week, I promised to revisit our recent poll on partisan Covid attitudes — and to consider a response from some liberal readers. The debate over school masking offers a way to do so.

Communal risk

The poll found that many Democrats, especially younger Democrats, seem to be overstating their personal risk from Covid. In response, some readers argued that exaggerating individual risk is actually a good thing, because it leads to more support for Covid mitigation policies, like mask mandates and limits on public gatherings.

The real problem, according to this view, is that the U.S. has done too little to protect people from Covid; if exaggerating individual risk can reduce Covid's communal risk, isn't that a good thing?

There is some logic to this line of thinking, because the U.S. has indeed done too little to battle Covid. But the argument depends on the assumption that almost all Covid restrictions improve public health, and that isn't necessarily true. Nearly every restriction has both benefits and costs. The question is, when do the benefits outweigh the costs?

With the vaccines and boosters, the answer is clear. The benefits (a huge reduction in the risk of death, hospitalization and other symptoms) vastly outweigh the costs (a day or two of potentially feeling crummy). With many other mitigation strategies, however, the answer is murkier. The disruption and isolation of the past two years have contributed to increases in educational inequality, mental-health problems, blood pressure, drug overdoses, violent crime and other serious ills.

Masks are an intriguing tool because they allow people to be together while also protecting themselves. Yet a growing number of Americans are nonetheless deciding that the costs of masks often fall short of the benefits, especially in schools.

Let's dig into both the costs and benefits of school mask mandates.

The empathy gap

The benefits of universal masking in schools remain unclear. Studies — in Florida and in England, for example — tend to find little effect on caseloads. One study that did find an effect has been largely debunked.

Some experts still favor masks in schools, saying they likely have an effect, even if few studies have yet shown it. A lot of other evidence suggests masking matters. Until the Omicron wave ends and both hospitalizations and deaths fall much further, masks should stay on, these experts say.

Other experts believe mandated school masking is almost worthless. "It doesn't work," Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota epidemiologist, told me. Among the reasons: Medical masks are designed for adults, not children, Osterholm notes. Even masks designed for children slip off their faces. Children take off their masks to eat. Add in Omicron's intense contagiousness, and the benefits of mandates may be tiny.

It's also relevant that teachers and students who want to continue wearing masks can do so. One-way masking, with medical masks, provides protection, experts note.

Of course, the costs of mandates may also be small for many children, especially older ones. For others, though, the costs seem larger. NPR's Anya Kamenetz has cataloged them: Students can't always understand teachers; young children, unable to see faces in classrooms, may not be developing emotional skills; and children of all ages are having a harder time making connections.

"They're not developing empathy," Stephanie Avanessian, a Los Angeles mother, told NPR. "It's taken six months for my fifth grader to make friends because it's so hard to tell what people are doing."

For reasons like this, Europe's infectious disease agency does not recommend masking for children under 12, and many countries avoid masking preschoolers. The U.S. stands out for its aggressive use of masks on young children.

The bottom line

The evidence suggests that the benefits of mandated school masking are modest and that the costs are meaningful for some children, particularly after two years of pandemic life. This combination suggests that the removal of statewide mandates will probably do more good than harm, given that Covid cases are now plummeting.

But there is an important caveat: If another big Covid wave comes — and it may — the argument for a temporary return of masking will become stronger. When hospitals are overwhelmed, even small differences in caseloads can save lives. Different moments call for different Covid policies.

What are your Covid questions? Sign up for an online event — The Morning at Night — that I'm hosting with two experts on March 9.

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Lynn Hershman Leeson's video "Logic Paralyzes the Heart."Lynn Hershman Leeson/Altman Siegel, San Francisco and Bridget Donahue, New York

A more inclusive Biennale

The Venice Biennale — the longest-running exhibition of contemporary art — features some changes this year. For one, a majority of artists are women or gender-nonconforming. The choice was "a deliberate rethinking of man's centrality in the history of art and contemporary culture," Cecilia Alemani, the show's curator, said.

The Brooklyn-based sculptor Simone Leigh is the first Black woman to represent the U.S. at the Biennale, and most of the 213 artists on display have never been in the exhibition before. Five countries are also participating for the first time: Cameroon, Namibia, Nepal, Oman and Uganda.

Among the themes that the art addresses are identity, ecological activism and the push-and-pull relationship between humans and technology. The Korean artist Geumhyung Jeong, for example, has created robotic bodies that can be reassembled.

The Biennale opens in April and runs through November. Preview some of the art. — Sanam Yar, a Morning writer

PLAY, WATCH, EAT

What to Cook
David Malosh for The New York Times

Nutty farro and earthy mushrooms form the base of this elegant gratin.

What to Read

Having trouble paying attention? Two books — Johann Hari's "Stolen Focus" and Jacob Ward's "The Loop" — dissect how technology is affecting our brains.

What to Watch

"Abbott Elementary," a sitcom by Quinta Brunson, follows Philadelphia schoolteachers, mockumentary style.

Now Time to Play

The pangram from yesterday's Spelling Bee was collectible. Here is today's puzzle — or you can play online.

Here's today's Mini Crossword, and a clue: Zero (three letters).

If you're in the mood to play more, find all our games here.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

Correction: Sunday's newsletter misstated Olaf Scholz's title. He is the chancellor of Germany, not the prime minister.

P.S. The Times's Sunday crossword aimed to please sci-fi fans of all stripes.

"The Daily" is about Russia and Ukraine. "The Ezra Klein Show" features Jason Furman.

Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti, Ashley Wu and Sanam Yar contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.

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